After a heartbreaking Wimbledon loss to Novak Djokovic, the sports world will once again wonder whether Roger Federer will ever win another major. Federer turns 33 next month and has only played in three of the last 18 major finals. He may never again be as close to a Grand Slam as he was on Sunday, when he gave up an early lead to Djokovic, then survived a harrowing fourth set to extend the match to a decisive fifth. But does that mean he won’t have a chance to win another? The Win debunks some of the most popular misconceptions about the chances of Roger Federer winning an 18th Grand Slam.
He has proven wrong that he's too old to compete in best of five matches.
Federer, at 32, looked more fresh at the end of Sunday’s five-setter than the 27-year-old Djokovic. It was Djokovic who had to see the trainer twice during the match, not Federer. He lost that last set, of course, but it wasn’t because of conditioning.
Wimbledon 2014 was the perfect storm in terms of draw, scheduling and opponents.
This has been the most popular refrain over the fortnight, even if the evidence doesn’t bear it out.
1. Federer didn’t have a murderer’s row in the first week, but who does? (Don’t act like Nadal getting the middling Lukas Rosol was some profound stroke of bad luck.) Federer had to face Australian Open champion Stan Wawrinka in the quarterfinals. Djokovic, by comparison, faced Marin Cilic.
Yes, Nadal getting ousted before a potential Federer-Nadal semifinal was beneficial. Anyone would rather face Milos Raonic than Nadal. But Nadal has three Wimbledon wins in his past three appearances at the tournament! That’s as many as Federer had from Tuesday to Friday. It’s not as if Rafa is the world-beater on grass that he was in 2008 and 2010.
2. The schedule actually worked against Federer. Because of last Saturday’s rain, Federer had to play his last four matches in six days. He had the hardest quarterfinal opponent of the Big Four. And, let’s not forget, Federer had to play Novak Djokovic in the final! This wasn’t the 2009 French Open, when Federer had to dodge Nadal in the final. It’s not 2010 Wimbledon, when Nadal dodged Federer and Djokovic and played Tomas Berdych to win. Though it was a fairly pedestrian road to the final, that’s the rule, not the exception. Federer certainly didn’t get a lucky break from the weather or scheduling gods.
3. This is the most important: Federer was dominating prior to his match with Djokovic. He was only broken once in his first six matches. In his 16 years at the All-England Club, he had never pulled such a feat. (In three years, he entered the final with only two breaks of his serve.)
He has lost nerve to win big points.
Federer was twice broken in the fourth set and broke back both times to keep Djokovic from serving it out. He staved off a match point on his own serve. Then, Federer broke at 5-5 in the fourth to push the match to a fifth. He was phenomenal on big points on Sunday. Djokovic was just a little better in more of them.
He can't compete with younger opponents.
Federer handled 23-year-old Milos Raonic in the semifinals. In the final, the soon-to-be 33-year-old was a few points away from defeating the new world No. 1. Novak Djokovic had to win a classic to win the title.
So, if Roger Federer was *thisclose* to winning a Slam on Sunday, against the new world No. 1 and a player with seven Grand Slam titles, why wouldn’t he able to win another major? Doesn’t Sunday show that Federer is more than capable of doing so? He didn’t lose in the second round, he lost in the fifth set of the final! Even if the 33-year-old Fed isn’t as good as the 32-year-old Fed, he’ll still be in the running to compete at every Slam outside of Roland Garros.
None of this means Federer will win another major. He’s probably 50/50 right now, maybe even a little less. But whatever the odds were before Wimbledon, they should be just as good now. Over the fortnight, Federer showed he still has the ability, health and desire to win Grand Slams.
This Wimbledon was a golden opportunity for Roger Federer to win major No. 18. But just because he came up short, it doesn’t mean it’s his last.
0 comments:
Post a Comment